Presentation Details
| PV That Lasts: Persistence in New York Customer-Sited Installations Antonia Sanhueza1, Dana Nilsson2, Dale Tutaj3. 1DNV, Madison, WI, USA.2NYSERDA, Albany, NY, USA.3DNV, Milwaukee, WI, USA |
Abstract
NYSERDA’s NY-Sun PV Incentive Program provides financial incentives toward a goal of installing 10 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity by 2030. Solar installations are typically in place for 25+ years. Future grid planning requires knowing both the total solar capacity installed and the stability of its electricity generation over time. This study analyzed New York State solar production data to explore how generation from installed systems changes over time. The analysis’s key metric is the performance loss rate (PLR), or the annual percent reduction in the amount of electricity produced.
This study estimates an average annual PLR of 0.83% ± 0.09% across New York State. Aggregated over time and the state’s solar fleet, an 0.83% annual PLR would mean a 20%+ reduction in annual solar production by 2050 from the 10 GW targeted. This represents a loss of around 2,200 GWh, underscoring the importance of incorporating solar production degradation into long-term energy planning.
The analysis reveals significant regional and system-level variation. Annual PLRs range from 0.5% in Long Island to 1.5% upstate. Purchased and power purchase agreement systems exhibit higher loss rates than leased systems, monocrystalline modules outlast polycrystalline, and systems using microinverters show lower PLR than string inverters and optimizers. Finally, systems in disadvantaged communities show higher loss rates.
Analysis results will help the state track progress on its decarbonization goals and identify opportunities to mitigate performance risks across the solar portfolio.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author.
This study estimates an average annual PLR of 0.83% ± 0.09% across New York State. Aggregated over time and the state’s solar fleet, an 0.83% annual PLR would mean a 20%+ reduction in annual solar production by 2050 from the 10 GW targeted. This represents a loss of around 2,200 GWh, underscoring the importance of incorporating solar production degradation into long-term energy planning.
The analysis reveals significant regional and system-level variation. Annual PLRs range from 0.5% in Long Island to 1.5% upstate. Purchased and power purchase agreement systems exhibit higher loss rates than leased systems, monocrystalline modules outlast polycrystalline, and systems using microinverters show lower PLR than string inverters and optimizers. Finally, systems in disadvantaged communities show higher loss rates.
Analysis results will help the state track progress on its decarbonization goals and identify opportunities to mitigate performance risks across the solar portfolio.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author.
Content Locked. Log into a registered attendee account to access this presentation.