Presentation Details
| Who Owns the Risk? Temporal Misalignment Between PV Manufacturing, Degradation, and Project-Level Uncertainty in Utility-Scale Solar Andy Skumanich, . SolarVisionCo, San Francisco, CA, USA |
Abstract
Modern utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) deployment increasingly relies on long-lead manufacturing commitments made years before project energization. At the same time, downstream project realization is subject to growing uncertainty driven by transmission congestion, permitting delays, financing volatility, policy shifts, and domestic-content requirements. This creates a structural temporal gap between when PV modules are produced and when their economic value is realized, raising a fundamental but under-examined question: who bears performance and timing risk when development timelines diverge from manufacturing assumptions? From a technical perspective, PV modules are not time-invariant assets. Degradation mechanisms such as light-induced degradation (LID), warranty clocks, and inventory aging introduce predictable but non-negligible changes in effective performance and economic life between shipment and energization. These effects are explicitly modeled in yield simulations and financing assumptions, yet they are typically anchored to expected installation schedules that increasingly fail to hold in practice. When modules are delivered on schedule but projects stall, degradation and elapsed warranty time can alter energy-yield projections, bankability, and repurposability—even if the modules remain fully functional and compliant. This paper develops a systems-level framework for analyzing risk allocation across the PV supply chain by linking module physics, degradation trajectories, and performance warranties to project-level yield modeling and financial assumptions. We examine how small shifts in assumed timelines can propagate into materially different outcomes for developers, manufacturers, and investors, and why traditional contract structures often fail to reflect this coupled physical-economic reality. By clarifying how time-dependent performance interacts with development uncertainty, this work highlights a growing misalignment between upstream manufacturing risk and downstream project risk in modern PV deployment. Addressing this misalignment is critical to preventing stranded assets, reducing capital inefficiency, and sustaining the scale-up of utility-scale solar under increasingly volatile grid, regulatory, and market conditions.
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No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author.
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