Presentation Details
| A Probabilistic Techno-Economic and Sensitivity Analysis of Poly-Si Production for Solar Photovoltaics in Australia Nathan Chang1, Simao Lin1, Oliver Hartley2, Michelle Vaqueiro-Contreras1. 1University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.2Bright Dimension, Sydney, Australia |
Abstract
Rapid growth in solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment has intensified demand for upstream manufacturing inputs while exposing risks associated with highly concentrated supply chains. As governments and industry seek to diversify polysilicon production, an improved understanding of cost uncertainty and investment risk has become increasingly important. This paper applies a probabilistic techno-economic model to assess polysilicon production in Australia using a Monte Carlo approach. This analysis forms part of an Australian Government funded feasibility study into the establishment of domestic polysilicon manufacturing capacity. Key inputs, including capital expenditure, electricity prices, labour costs and input material costs, are represented as uncertainty ranges rather than point estimates. 10,000 model iterations are used to generate distributions of manufacturing cost and the minimum sustainable price for a 50 kt per year Siemens process facility. Sensitivity and variance-attribution analyses show that electricity pricing and equipment capital costs dominate cost variability. This analysis provides quantitative bounds on feasible cost outcomes under plausible market conditions and offers a framework to support early-stage investment and policy decision-making. While the case study focuses on Australia, the methodology and insights are applicable to other regions pursuing PV supply chain diversification and resilience. The results presented in this abstract are preliminary. Further refinement of input assumptions is underway and updated results will be presented at the conference.
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No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author.