Presentation Details
| Modeling Enhanced Spatial Resolution and Regulatory Drivers of Photovoltaic End-of-Life Pathways in a Circular Economy Agent-Based Model Purboday Ghosh, Julien Walzberg, Garvin Heath. National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO, USA |
Abstract
The rapid growth of photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the United States is expected to result in a significant increase in the accumulation of end-of-life (EOL) PV modules, reinforcing the need for robust circular economy (CE) strategies that ensure safe, sustainable handling and recovery of PV panels’ economic value, bolstering critical supply chains. Agent-based modeling (ABM) provides a useful framework for representing the diverse stakeholders, social factors, and regulatory constraints that influence EOL decision-making in the PV ecosystem. Building on prior work at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), this paper presents technical enhancements to NLR’s circular economy agent-based model (CE-ABM) for analyzing PV EOL pathways. Two major improvements are introduced. First, the model is extended to enable enhanced spatial resolution by representing individual utility-scale PV sites, using facility-level installation data from the United States Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database (USPVDB). These data are integrated with balancing-area–level PV deployment projections from NLR’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model and EOL material mass flow projections from NLR's PV-ICE tool. Second, state-specific hazardous waste regulations are incorporated through the addition of a regulator agent, including exclusion polcies, alternative waste management pathways and their associated constraints. A probabilistic, age-dependent model of the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) is implemented for hazardous waste classification. The enhanced CE-ABM is demonstrated through long-term simulations of PV installations across the contiguous United States. Results show strong spatial variation in EOL PV waste generation across regions with more granular detail. It also shows how hazardous waste classification outcomes increase over time, demonstrating the effect of module aging on EOL management pathways. These enhancements improve the accuracy of the model and support more comprehensive analysis of PV circular economy strategies under diverse spatial and regulatory conditions.
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No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author.