SPLTRAK Abstract Submission
What is the Optimal Electricity Share for Very Inexpensive Solar PV?
Adam J Dvorak1& Marta Victoria1,2
1Department of Mechanical and Production Engineering, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
/2iCLIMATE Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus, Denmark

Solar electricity is already cost-optimal in many world regions. Moreover, by 2050, the price of utility solar could decrease by over an order of magnitude from today’s costs with present-day learning rates and projected solar capacities. In this work, we focus on investigating what is the optimal energy mix in a framework of very inexpensive solar PV and what are the main drivers that foster solar penetration.  We show the effects of cheap solar on four contrasting “cold” and “hot” regions across the United States and Europe using an open, hourly resolved, copper plate model. In addition to varying by region, we find that the optimal mix of renewable resources varies with stricter CO2 constraints. Finally, we identify the temperature-dependency of the electricity demand of these regions, show the effects of global-warming induced temperature increase on demand and discuss the implications for optimal solar penetration.