SPLTRAK Abstract Submission
Accuracy of Potential High Limit Estimation for Solar Plants in the Southeast US
William B. Hobbs1, David J. Ault1, Vahan Gevorgian2, Govind Saraswat2
1Southern Company, Birmingham, AL, United States
/2NREL, Golden, CO, United States

Flexible solar operation, where solar photovoltaic (PV) plants follow up- and down-regulation signals, has significant potential to improve integration of solar into power grids. To optimize operation, it is important to accurately estimate the potential maximum power output, or potential high limit (PHL), of a plant in real time during periods where output has been reduced. As the PHL cannot be directly measured while a plant is curtailed, and it is driven by highly variable weather and plant conditions, model-based estimation methods are subject to errors. An estimation method using a subset of a plant as a reference has been developed by NREL. Here, we evaluate a version of that method using data from several utility-scale plants in the Southeast US spanning up to a full year.